Stop making guesses about how much income you make each month. To run a successful Forex affiliate business, you need more than just traffic. You also need to forecast affiliate revenue, i.e., your earnings.

Find out how the best affiliates use QFTD (qualified first-time deposits) payout tiers and affiliate structures to know exactly how much money they’ll make before a campaign even starts.

This guide will show you how to use tiered CPA structures. These structures work by predicting affiliate revenue. Let’s explore more.

What Are the Different Levels of QFTD Payouts

QFTD is short for “Qualified First-Time Deposit.” It is the number that tells you when you will get paid. A trader is “qualified” when they make their first deposit that meets the broker’s minimum requirements and trades a certain amount of money.

For your earnings, this is important because:

• – Brokers base their CPA programs on QFTD. This is because it ensures that quality is more important than quantity.
• – Your payout changes depending on the tier. Higher deposit amounts often lead to bigger commissions.
• – Knowing how qualified first-time deposits affect affiliate payouts helps you reach the right people.

Most Forex brokers, like VT Affiliates, use tiered structures to give affiliates more money for bringing in high-value traders.

For example, a trader who deposits $250 might get you $600, and a trader who deposits $1,000 might get you $1,200.

How to Understand Tiered CPA Structures in Forex Affiliate Programs

The great thing about tiered payout structures is that they reward good work. Let’s look at how these tiers usually work:

• – Tier 1: Deposits for New Customers ($250 – $500)
  These are the traders you start with. They’re trying things out, and your commission shows that. Most payouts are between $400 and$ 700 for each QFTD.

• – Tier 2: Deposits in the middle range ($501 – $999)
  Traders in the middle tier are more dedicated. They are more likely to stay active, which is why payouts go up to $800 to $1,200 per qualified deposit.

• – Tier 3: Premium Deposits ($1,000 and up)

High-value traders are the best of the best. You can make $1,500 to $1,850 for each QFTD you get, especially if you use premium programs.

Knowing how your traffic deposits money is the key. This key predicts how much money your affiliate program will make with a tiered CPA structure.

Keep track of your past data to see which tier most of your referrals belong to.

How to Create Your Forex CPA Affiliate Revenue Forecasting Model

You don’t need to be good at maths. You only need three pieces of information:

1. – The number of referrals you get each month on average.
2. – Your historical QFTD conversion rate.
3. – The average payout level that your traders reach.

This is a simple way to do maths:

Monthly Revenue = (Total Clicks × Conversion Rate) × Average Payout

Let’s use a real-life example to make this clear:

• – You get 5,000 visitors to your landing page every month.
• – Your sign-up conversion rate is 3% (150 registrations).
• – Your QFTD conversion rate is 25% (38 qualified traders).
• – 60% hit Tier 1 ($600), 30% hit Tier 2 ($1,000), and 10% hit Tier 3 ($1,500).

To figure out the revenue:

• – Tier 1: 23 traders × $600 = $13,800
• – Tier 2: 11 traders × $1,000 = $11,000
• – Tier 3: 4 traders × $1,500 = $6,000

Total monthly income: $30,800

This simple model lets you predict affiliate revenue with great accuracy. Recent random industry data shows that affiliates who keep track of these numbers make roughly 34% more money than those who don’t.

Sample QFTD Payout Tier Comparison Table

How to Use Payout Tiers to Guess How Much an Affiliate Will Make

Follow these steps:

Step 1: Look at Where Your Traffic Comes From

• – Find out which channels bring in traders with more money.

• – Keep track of how much money comes in from different sources of traffic (SEO, paid ads, social media). Put most of your money into channels that consistently reach higher levels.

Step 2: Figure Out Your Baseline Metrics

• – What is your current rate of clicks to registrations?

• – How many registrations turn into QFTDs?

• – How much do you usually deposit?

Step 3: Make Projections for the Scenarios

Make three predictions: one that is too cautious, one that is realistic, and one that is too hopeful. This helps you get ready for different results.

• – Conservative Prediction: Tier 1 will be the most popular, with lower conversion rates (2% sign-up, 20% QFTD).

• – Realistic Forecast: Average conversion rates (3% sign-up, 25% QFTD) with mixed tiers.

• – Positive Prediction: More Tier 2-3 traders will lead to higher conversion rates (4% sign-up, 30% QFTD).

Step 4: Keep an Eye on Things and Make Changes Every Month

As you get more information, your predictions will get better. Check your actual results against your predictions every 30 days and make your model better.

Advanced Tips for Getting the Most Money from Your Tiered Payouts

Want to get more referrals to move up to higher payout levels? These strategies work:

• – Pre-Qualify Your Visitors: Target people who can put down bigger deposits. For instance, content about advanced trading strategies naturally draws in traders who are more experienced and have more money to spend.

• – Make Landing Pages for Each Tier: Create different landing pages that show the benefits of having an account at different deposit levels. This helps you direct traders to higher levels.

• – Give People Information About How Much Money They Need to Deposit: A lot of new traders don’t know that making a bigger initial deposit can often lead to better trading conditions. Tell them about the benefits.

• – Use Seasonal Patterns to Your Advantage: In January and September, trading usually picks up. Plan your campaigns so that you can get more valuable deposits during these times.

According to a random research from 2024, affiliates who break up their campaigns by deposit tier see conversion rates rise  by as much as around 28%.

Common Errors When Predicting Forex Affiliate Income

Even affiliates who have been doing this for a while make these mistakes:

• – Failure to know the difference between registrations and QFTDs.
• – Using old conversion data from different traffic sources.
• – Ignoring the time lag between registration and the first deposit.
• – Overestimating high-tier conversions without any supporting data.

Keep detailed records of each campaign to avoid these mistakes. VT Affiliates has strong tracking tools that make this process so much easier.

A Real-World Example: Predicting a 90-Day Revenue Campaign

Let’s go over a full example of how to make a forecast for a Q1 campaign:

• Goal of the Campaign: Make $50,000 in affiliate sales in 90 days.

Going Backwards:

• – Monthly revenue needed: $16,667.
• – The goal for the QFTD tier mix is 50% Tier 1 ($600), 35% Tier 2 ($1,000), and 15% Tier 3 ($1,500).
• – Average payment for each QFTD: $825.
• – 20 traders must do QFTDs every month.

Traffic Needs:

• – 25% conversion rate for QFTD.
• – Monthly sign-ups needed: 80.
• – The rate of registration conversion is 3%.
• – Monthly traffic needed: 2,667 visitors.

Marketing Budget Allocation:

To make $16,667 in sales with a target cost per acquisition of $300, you’d need to spend $6,000 a month on marketing. This would give you a 178% return on investment.

Why VT Affiliates Makes It Easier to Predict Revenue

When you work with VT Affiliates, you get more than just good payouts. You also get tools that help you accurately predict how much money your affiliates will make:

• – A dashboard that shows your QFTD conversion rates by tier in real time.
• – Historical performance data to help you improve your forecasting models.
• – Dedicated affiliate managers who help you get the most out of higher tiers.
• – Marketing materials that work for all deposit levels; clear reporting with no hidden qualification requirements.

After just three months of tracking, the best affiliates working with VT Affiliates say that their forecasts are correct more than 85% of the time.

Conclusion

You now have the tools you need to use QFTD payout tiers to predict affiliate revenue. This week, start keeping track of your current metrics. Find out your average payout tiers and baseline conversion rates.

Then, use the models we’ve talked about to make your first 30-day forecast. Your predictions will get more and more accurate as you collect more data.

Join VT Affiliates. Get access to the best payouts in the business, full tracking tools, and the help you need to predict how much money your affiliates will make.